Search results for "Debt sustainability"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
Testing for public debt sustainability using band spectrum regression analysis "
2014
In this note we focus on the response of the primary surplus to debt (ratios to GDP)over a low frequency band (associated with cycles with period between eight and sixteen years) to filter out business cycle effects. For this purpose, we use band spectrum regression, using both the Fourier Transform and the Discrete Wavelet transform, fitted to pooled panel dataset of 18 EMU countries. The empirical findings give evidence of fiscal fatigue within Eurozone:the response of primary surplus to debt will decrease over a finite debt limit.
Testing for public debt sustainability using a time-scale decomposition analysis
2013
In this paper we estimate the response of primary surplus to lagged debt to test for debt sustainability within the 17 EMU countries by using a factor model. The analysis is split into two stages. In the first stage we retrieve the cyclical and long-run components of primary surplus and debt ratios of each EMU country using a wavelet decomposition for each fiscal covariate, based on the Maximal Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform. In the second stage, we use Full Information Maximum Likelihood for a factor decomposition of thecross covariance matrix of the wavelet coefficients of primary deficit and debt to GDP ratios in order to measure the short run and the long run reaction of the pri…
Political risks: the “red shift” in debt sustainability analysis
2020
Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions.
Public debt sustainability and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Latvia
2021
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on economic growth. Many countries are trying to stimulate their economies and help their citizens through fiscal policy, which have led to a significant increase in government debt. A significant increase in Latvia's general government debt is also being forecasted. Excessive debt threatens the sustainability of public finances and has a negative impact on the country's economic growth. The aim of this study is to assess the sustainability of general government debt in Latvia, taking into account the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The results of the study show that the increase in Latvia's general government debt as a result of the Covid…
Does politics matter in the conduct of fiscal policy? Political determinants of the fiscal sustainability: Evidence from seven individual Central and…
2007
This paper aims at assessing the fiscal sustainability and its political determinants in seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. First, using the recent sustainability approach of Bohn (1998) based on fiscal reaction function, econometric findings using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) reveal a positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt in several countries. In other words, fiscal policy is sustainable in Baltic countries, Slovenia and Slovakia, but not in Poland and in the Czech Republic. Second, by introducing political dummy variables, we test the electoral budget cycle and the…
Political determinants of the fiscal sustainability: evidence from six individual developed countries.
2007
This paper aims at assessing the fiscal sustainability and its political determinants in six countries, namely France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States. First, using the recent sustainability approach of Bohn (1998) based on fiscal reaction function, econometric findings using OLS reveal a positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt in several countries. In other words, fiscal policy is sustainable in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, but not in Germany and Greece. Second, by introducing political dummy variables, we test the electoral budget cycle, the partisan cycle and the government coalition theories. We find the presence…
A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability
2015
Abstract In this paper, we reassess the relationship between primary deficit and lagged debt to GDP ratio (Bohn, 1998), to test for US debt sustainability over the period 1795–2012. Our analysis is rooted in the wavelet domain enabling the detection of interesting patterns and otherwise hidden information. We find evidence of long term fiscal sustainability but only up until 1995 and also we show that governments tend to respond more vigorously to budget deficits when the level of debt is high rather than low.
Auditing Public Debt Using Risk Management
2023
The Audit Office of the Republic of Cyprus conducted the first-ever audit of the country’s public debt, seeking answers to two key questions. Is government debt sustainable, and is debt financing efficient and effective in securing the lowest cost with acceptable risks? The audit’s findings were discussed by the parliament and can have significant ramifications for public finance. However, public debt management is quite complex, and the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions suggests that sufficient technical knowledge is essential in undertaking an audit, including an understanding of the uncertain macroeconomy, financing conditions, and government fiscal stance. We use…
Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing
2021
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade-off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and dynamic financing strategies and demonstrate economically significant savings from optimal financing compared with simple rules and consols, and find that optimizing the trade-offs can be critical for sustainability. The model quantifies minimum refinancing risk and maximum rate of debt reduction that a sovereign can achieve given its economic fundamentals, and an extension identifies optimal timing…